STRATEGIES TO DEAL WITH EPIDEMICS USING A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL

A COVID-19 STUDY CASE

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4322/PODes.2021.009

Palavras-chave:

Dinâmica de Sistemas, COVID-19, Suporte à decisão

Resumo

This paper presents a System Dynamics Model to verify well-known strategies to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak, based on the classical epidemiological SIR model. Three main strategies were tested, considering the idealized main goal of public policies, to save lives. In addition, the authorities' reaction time on implementing actions to control the pandemic is analyzed. From the tested strategies, between quarantine extension, vertical quarantine, and identification of infected persons, the most promising is to identify infected persons and the least suitable is vertical quarantine. Also, the simulations indicated that tightening quarantine at any time tends to save lives, but late action by authorities can bring overpressure on a country's health care system, which has also direct impact on the lethality of the epidemic.

Biografia do Autor

Mischel Carmen Neyra Belderrain, Profa., Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica (ITA)

Professora Titular do Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica. Possui Doutorado em Engenharia Aeronáutica e Mecânica pelo Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica. Mestrado em Engenharia de Sistemas e Computação pela Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro COPPE/UFRJ. Graduação em Investigación Operativa - Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima, Peru. Consultor ad-hoc da Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo - FAPESP, CAPES e CNPq. Tem experiência na área de Engenharia de Produção, com ênfase em Pesquisa Operacional, atuando principalmente nos seguintes temas: Métodos de estruturação de problemas (PSM), Métodos de apoio à decisão multicritério e Multimetodologia. 

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Publicado

14-05-2021

Como Citar

Lucena, A., & Belderrain, M. C. N. (2021). STRATEGIES TO DEAL WITH EPIDEMICS USING A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL: A COVID-19 STUDY CASE. Pesquisa Operacional Para O Desenvolvimento, 13, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.4322/PODes.2021.009